Geometric ergodicity of trans-dimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms (2308.00139v3)

Abstract: This article studies the convergence properties of trans-dimensional MCMC algorithms when the total number of models is finite. It is shown that, for reversible and some non-reversible trans-dimensional Markov chains, under mild conditions, geometric convergence is guaranteed if the Markov chains associated with the within-model moves are geometrically ergodic. This result is proved in an $L^2$ framework using the technique of Markov chain decomposition. While the technique was previously developed for reversible chains, this work extends it to the point that it can be applied to some commonly used non-reversible chains. The theory herein is applied to reversible jump algorithms for three Bayesian models: a probit regression with variable selection, a Gaussian mixture model with unknown number of components, and an autoregression with Laplace errors and unknown model order.