The Dynamics of Political Narratives During the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Abstract: The Russian invasion of Ukraine has elicited a diverse array of responses from nations around the globe. During a global conflict, polarized narratives are spread on social media to sway public opinion. We examine the dynamics of the political narratives surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war during the first two months of the Russian invasion of Ukraine (RU) using the Chinese Twitter space as a case study. Since the beginning of the RU, pro-Chinese-state and anti-Chinese-state users have spread divisive opinions, rumors, and conspiracy theories. We investigate how the pro- and anti-state camps contributed to the evolution of RU-related narratives, as well as how a few influential accounts drove the narrative evolution. We identify pro-state and anti-state actors on Twitter using network analysis and text-based classifiers, and we leverage text analysis, along with the users' social interactions (e.g., retweeting), to extract narrative coordination and evolution. We find evidence that both pro-state and anti-state camps spread propaganda narratives about RU. Our analysis illuminates how actors coordinate to advance particular viewpoints or act against one another in the context of global conflict.