Developing a Comprehensive Model for Feasibility Analysis of Separated Bike Lanes and Electric Bike Lanes: A Case Study in Shanghai, China

Abstract: Electric bikes (e-bikes), including lightweight e-bikes with pedals and e-bikes in scooter form, are gaining popularity around the world because of their convenience and affordability. At the same time, e-bike-related accidents are also on the rise and many policymakers and practitioners are debating the feasibility of building e-bike lanes in their communities. By collecting e-bikes and bikes data in Shanghai City, the study first recalibrates the capacity of the conventional bike lane based on the traffic movement characteristics of the mixed bikes flow. Then, the study evaluates the traffic safety performance of the mixed bike flow in the conventional bike lane by the observed passing events. Finally, this study proposes a comprehensive model for evaluating the feasibility of building an e-bike lane by integrating the Analytic Hierarchy Process and fuzzy mathematics by considering the three objectives: capacity, safety, and budget constraint. The proposed model, one of the first of its kind, can be used to (i) evaluate the existing road capacity and safety performance improvement of a mixed bike flow with e-bikes and human-powered bikes by analyzing the mixed bike flow arrival rate and passing maneuvers, and (ii) quantify the changes to the road capacity and safety performance if a new e-bike lane is constructed. Numerical experiments are performed to calibrate the proposed model and evaluate its performance using non-motorized vehicles' trajectories in Shanghai, China. The numerical experiment results suggest that the proposed model can be used by policymakers and practitioners to evaluate the feasibility of building e-bike lanes.