Estimation of boreal forest biomass from ICESat-2 data using hierarchical hybrid inference

Abstract: The ICESat-2, launched in 2018, carries the ATLAS instrument, which is a photon-counting spaceborne lidar that provides strip samples over the terrain. While primarily designed for snow and ice monitoring, there has been a great interest in using ICESat-2 to predict forest above-ground biomass density (AGBD). As ICESat-2 is on a polar orbit, it provides good spatial coverage of boreal forests. The aim of this study is to evaluate the estimation of mean AGBD from ICESat-2 data using a hierarchical modeling approach combined with rigorous statistical inference. We propose a hierarchical hybrid inference approach for uncertainty quantification of the AGBD estimated from ICESat-2 lidar strips. Our approach models the errors coming from the multiple modeling steps, including the allometric models used for predicting tree-level AGB. For testing the procedure, we have data from two adjacent study sites, denoted Valtimo and Nurmes, of which Valtimo site is used for model training and Nurmes for validation. The ICESat-2 estimated mean AGBD in the Nurmes validation area was 63.2$\pm$1.9 Mg/ha (relative standard error of 2.9%). The local reference hierarchical model-based estimate obtained from wall-to-wall airborne lidar data was 63.9$\pm$0.6 Mg/ha (relative standard error of 1.0%). The reference estimate was within the 95% confidence interval of the ICESat-2 hierarchical hybrid estimate. The small standard errors indicate that the proposed method is useful for AGBD assessment. However, some sources of error were not accounted for in the study and thus the real uncertainties are probably slightly larger than those reported.