Extending the Dixon and Coles model: an application to women's football data (2307.02139v1)

Abstract: The prevalent model by Dixon and Coles (1997) extends the double Poisson model where two independent Poisson distributions model the number of goals scored by each team by moving probabilities between the scores 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, and 1-1. We show that this is a special case of a multiplicative model known as the Sarmanov family. Based on this family, we create more suitable models by moving probabilities between scores and employing other discrete distributions. We apply the new models to women's football scores, which exhibit some characteristics different than that of men's football.