Standard Siren Cosmology with Gravitational Waves from Binary Black Hole Mergers in Active Galaxy Nuclei (2307.01330v2)

Abstract: The detection of gravitational waves (GW) with an electromagnetic counterpart enabled the first Hubble Constant $H_0$ measurement through the standard siren method. Current constraints suggest that $\sim 20-30\%$ of LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA (LVK) Binary Black Hole (BBH) mergers might occur in Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) disks. The claim for a possible association of several BBH mergers with flaring AGNs suggests that cosmological analyses using BBH and AGNs might be promising. We explore standard siren analyses through a method that takes into account the presence of background flaring AGNs, without requiring a unique host galaxy identification, and apply it to realistic GW simulations. Depending on the fraction of LVK BBHs that induce flares, we expect to constrain $H_0$ at the $\sim 6-7\%$ ($\sim 4-5\%$) precision with $\sim 2-3$ years or $\sim 160-240$ events ($\sim 1$ year or $500$ events) of LVK at design (A+) sensitivity, assuming that systematic BBH follow-up searches are performed. %Assuming a more restrictive $\Omega_{\rm m}$ prior and that at least $20\%$ of BBHs produces detectable flares, we may reach a $3\%$ ($2\%$) precision in $H_0$ after 2 (1) year of LVK at design (A+) sensitivity. We also show that in a scenario where only $\sim 1\%$ of the BBHs induce detectable flares it is possible to achieve an $H_0$ precision from $7.5\%$ to $15\%$ with $\sim 240$ events. In addition, a $\sim 5-27\%$ precision is achievable with complete AGN catalogs and 1 year of LVK run, without the need of any flare identification.