Fitting an ellipsoid to a quadratic number of random points

Abstract: We consider the problem $(\mathrm{P})$ of fitting $n$ standard Gaussian random vectors in $\mathbb{R}^d$ to the boundary of a centered ellipsoid, as $n, d \to \infty$. This problem is conjectured to have a sharp feasibility transition: for any $\varepsilon > 0$, if $n \leq (1 - \varepsilon) d^2 / 4$ then $(\mathrm{P})$ has a solution with high probability, while $(\mathrm{P})$ has no solutions with high probability if $n \geq (1 + \varepsilon) d^2 /4$. So far, only a trivial bound $n \geq d^2 / 2$ is known on the negative side, while the best results on the positive side assume $n \leq d^2 / \mathrm{polylog}(d)$. In this work, we improve over previous approaches using a key result of Bartl & Mendelson (2022) on the concentration of Gram matrices of random vectors under mild assumptions on their tail behavior. This allows us to give a simple proof that $(\mathrm{P})$ is feasible with high probability when $n \leq d^2 / C$, for a (possibly large) constant $C > 0$.