Nonlinear Autoregressive Approach to Estimating Logistic Model Parameters of Urban Fractal Dimension Curves (2306.10542v1)

Abstract: A time series of fractal dimension values of urban form can form a fractal dimension curve and reflects urban growth. In many cases, the fractal dimension curves of cities can be modeled with logistic function, which in turn can be used to make prediction analysis and stage division studies of urban evolution. Although there is more than one method available, it is difficult for many scholars to estimate the capacity parameter value in a logistic model. This paper shows a nonlinear autoregressive approach to estimating parameter values of logistic growth model of fractal dimension curves. The process is as follows. First, differentiating logistic function in theory with respect to time yields a growth rate equation of fractal dimension. Second, discretizing the growth rate equation yields a nonlinear autoregressive equation of fractal dimension. Third, applying the least square calculation to the nonlinear autoregressive equation yields partial parameter values of the logistic model. Fourth, substituting the preliminarily estimated results into the logistic models and changing it into a linear form, we can estimate the other parameter values by linear regression analysis. Finally, a practical logistic model of fractal dimension curves is obtained. The approach is applied the Baltimore's and Shenzhen's fractal dimension curves to demonstrate how to make use of it. This study provides a simple and effective method for estimating logistic model parameters, and it can be extended to the logistic models in other fields.