Bayesian Decision Trees via Tractable Priors and Probabilistic Context-Free Grammars (2302.07407v1)

Abstract: Decision Trees are some of the most popular machine learning models today due to their out-of-the-box performance and interpretability. Often, Decision Trees models are constructed greedily in a top-down fashion via heuristic search criteria, such as Gini impurity or entropy. However, trees constructed in this manner are sensitive to minor fluctuations in training data and are prone to overfitting. In contrast, Bayesian approaches to tree construction formulate the selection process as a posterior inference problem; such approaches are more stable and provide greater theoretical guarantees. However, generating Bayesian Decision Trees usually requires sampling from complex, multimodal posterior distributions. Current Markov Chain Monte Carlo-based approaches for sampling Bayesian Decision Trees are prone to mode collapse and long mixing times, which makes them impractical. In this paper, we propose a new criterion for training Bayesian Decision Trees. Our criterion gives rise to BCART-PCFG, which can efficiently sample decision trees from a posterior distribution across trees given the data and find the maximum a posteriori (MAP) tree. Learning the posterior and training the sampler can be done in time that is polynomial in the dataset size. Once the posterior has been learned, trees can be sampled efficiently (linearly in the number of nodes). At the core of our method is a reduction of sampling the posterior to sampling a derivation from a probabilistic context-free grammar. We find that trees sampled via BCART-PCFG perform comparable to or better than greedily-constructed Decision Trees in classification accuracy on several datasets. Additionally, the trees sampled via BCART-PCFG are significantly smaller -- sometimes by as much as 20x.