Neighborhood Adaptive Estimators for Causal Inference under Network Interference (2212.03683v1)

Abstract: Estimating causal effects has become an integral part of most applied fields. Solving these modern causal questions requires tackling violations of many classical causal assumptions. In this work we consider the violation of the classical no-interference assumption, meaning that the treatment of one individuals might affect the outcomes of another. To make interference tractable, we consider a known network that describes how interference may travel. However, unlike previous work in this area, the radius (and intensity) of the interference experienced by a unit is unknown and can depend on different sub-networks of those treated and untreated that are connected to this unit. We study estimators for the average direct treatment effect on the treated in such a setting. The proposed estimator builds upon a Lepski-like procedure that searches over the possible relevant radii and treatment assignment patterns. In contrast to previous work, the proposed procedure aims to approximate the relevant network interference patterns. We establish oracle inequalities and corresponding adaptive rates for the estimation of the interference function. We leverage such estimates to propose and analyze two estimators for the average direct treatment effect on the treated. We address several challenges steaming from the data-driven creation of the patterns (i.e. feature engineering) and the network dependence. In addition to rates of convergence, under mild regularity conditions, we show that one of the proposed estimators is asymptotically normal and unbiased.