SIR model with vaccination: bifurcation analysis

Abstract: There are few adapted SIR models in the literature that combine vaccination and logistic growth. In this article, we study bifurcations of a SIR model where the class of Susceptible individuals grows logistically and has been subject to constant vaccination. We explicitly prove that the endemic equilibrium is a codimension two singularity in the parameter space $(\mathcal{R}_0, p)$, where $\mathcal{R}_0$ is the basic reproduction number and $p$ is the proportion of Susceptible individuals successfully vaccinated at birth. We exhibit explicitly the Hopf, transcritical, Belyakov, heteroclinic and saddle-node bifurcation curves unfolding the singularity. The two parameters $(\mathcal{R}_0, p)$ are written in a useful way to evaluate the proportion of vaccinated individuals necessary to eliminate the disease and to conclude how the vaccination may affect the outcome of the epidemic. We also exhibit the region in the parameter space where the disease persists and we illustrate our main result with numerical simulations, emphasizing the role of the parameters.