Treatment Effect Estimation with Observational Network Data using Machine Learning (2206.14591v3)

Abstract: Causal inference methods for treatment effect estimation usually assume independent units. However, this assumption is often questionable because units may interact, resulting in spillover effects between units. We develop augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW) for estimation and inference of the direct effect of the treatment with observational data from a single (social) network with spillover effects. We use plugin machine learning and sample splitting to obtain a semiparametric treatment effect estimator that converges at the parametric rate and asymptotically follows a Gaussian distribution. We apply our AIPW method to the Swiss StudentLife Study data to investigate the effect of hours spent studying on exam performance accounting for the students' social network.