A two-strain reaction-diffusion malaria model with seasonality and vector-bias (2201.05559v1)

Abstract: To investigate the combined effects of drug resistance, seasonality and vector-bias, we formulate a periodic two-strain reaction-diffusion model. It is a competitive system for resistant and sensitive strains, but the single-strain subsystem is cooperative. We derive the basic reproduction number $\mathcal {R}_i$ and the invasion reproduction number $\mathcal {\hat{R}}_i$ for strain $i~(i=1,2)$, and establish the transmission dynamics in terms of these four quantities. More precisely, (i) if $\mathcal {R}_1<1$ and $\mathcal{R}_2<1$, then the disease is extinct; (ii) if $\mathcal {R}_1>1>\mathcal{R}_2$ ($\mathcal {R}_2>1>\mathcal{R}_1$), then the sensitive (resistant) strains are persistent, while the resistant (sensitive) strains die out; (iii) if $\mathcal {R}_i>1$ and $\mathcal {\hat{R}}_i>1~(i=1,2)$, then two strains are coexistent and periodic oscillation phenomenon is observed. We also study the asymptotic behavior of the basic reproduction number with respect to small and large diffusion coefficients. Numerically, we demonstrate the phenomena of coexistence and competitive exclusion for two strains and explore the influences of seasonality and vector-bias on disease spreading.