Exact solutions and bounds for network SIR and SEIR models using a rooted-tree approximation

Abstract: In this paper, we develop a node-based approximate model for Markovian contagion dynamics on networks. We prove that our approximate model is exact for SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) and SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) dynamics on tree graphs with a single source of infection and that the model otherwise gives upper bounds on the probabilities of each node being susceptible. Our analysis of SEIR contagion dynamics is generalised to SEIR models with arbitrarily many distinct classes of exposed state. In the case of trees with a single source of infection, our approach yields a system of partially-decoupled linear differential equations that exactly describes the evolution of node-state probabilities. We use this to state explicit closed-form solutions for SIR dynamics on a chain.