Avoiding the "Great Filter": A Projected Timeframe for Human Expansion Off-World (2108.01730v1)

Abstract: A foundational model has been developed based on trends built from empirical data of space exploration and computing power through the first six plus decades of the Space Age which projects earliest possible launch dates for human-crewed missions from cis-lunar space to selected Solar System and interstellar destinations. The model uses computational power, expressed as transistors per microprocessor, as a key broadly limiting factor for deep space missions' reach and complexity. The goal of this analysis is to provide a projected timeframe for humanity to become a multi-world species through off-world colonization, and in so doing all but guarantees the long-term survival of the human race from natural and human-caused calamities that could befall life on Earth. Be-ginning with the development and deployment of the first nuclear weapons near the end of World War II, humanity entered a 'Window of Peril' which will not be safely closed until robust off-world colonies become a reality. Our findings suggest the first human-crewed missions to land on Mars, selected Asteroid Belt objects, and selected moons of Jupiter and Saturn can occur before the end of the 21st century. Launches of human-crewed interstellar missions to exoplanet destinations within roughly 40 lightyears of the Solar System are seen as possible during the 23rd century and launch of intragalactic missions by the end of the 24th century. An aggressive and sustained space exploration program, which includes colonization, is thus seen as critical to the long-term survival of the human race.

• The paper introduces a model correlating exponential computing power growth with the timeline of off-world human missions.
• The analysis forecasts crewed Mars landings by the 2030s, with further missions to the asteroid belt and outer moons before century's end.
• The findings emphasize that advancing computational and AI technologies are critical to achieving interstellar travel milestones.

Projected Timeframe for Human Expansion Off-World: Analysis and Implications

The paper "Avoiding the Great Filter: A Projected Timeframe for Human Expansion Off-World" presents a systematic analysis of the anticipated timeline for human-crewed space missions aimed at facilitating off-world colonization. The framework laid out by the authors utilizes a model grounded in empirical data from the historical progression of space exploration and computing power. This approach aims to extrapolate potential launch dates for human missions to various interplanetary and interstellar destinations, thereby advancing humanity's status as a multi-world species and ensuring survival against existential threats on Earth.

Core Methodology and Findings

The foundation of the authors' model is a correlation between the exponential growth of computational power and advancements in the field of space exploration. With computing power, represented by transistors per microprocessor, used as a primary limiting factor, the model establishes a time-based trajectory for the evolution of space exploration missions.

Key Numerical Results

• The model predicts that human-crewed missions to Mars, selected asteroid belt objects, and moons of Jupiter and Saturn could potentially be launched before the end of the 21st century.
• The projection extends to interstellar travel, suggesting possible launches to destinations within approximately 40 lightyears away in the 23rd century and intragalactic missions by the late 24th century.
• Equation (3), $C = 457.2437 \times D$, outlines a quantifiable relationship between computational power and the farthest distance achieved by robotic missions, solidifying the connection between technological advancement and mission reach.

Implications and Speculation on Future Developments

The implications of the research are profound both in theoretical and practical contexts. Practically, the paper highlights the importance of sustaining and intensifying space exploration programs as a strategic imperative for human survival. Theoretically, the research underscores the role of computational power as a critical enabler in overcoming the vast distances associated with deep space missions.

The assertion of scheduling human landings on Mars by the 2030s aligns with contemporary initiatives such as NASA's Artemis program. This timeframe assumes that unprecedented computational advancements will facilitate the development of sophisticated life-support systems necessary for crewed missions.

Future developments in AI and computing could significantly impact the feasibility of interstellar travel, especially with projected limitations on Moore's Law becoming apparent. The deployment of quantum computing and other emerging technologies may prove essential in realizing the authors' interstellar mission projections.

Conclusion

The research conducted by Jiang, Rosen, and Fahy proposes a robust model that serves as a beacon for the trajectory of human space exploration. While acknowledging that computing power is a central determinant of mission capability, the model provides a compelling timeline for the potential expansion of human presence beyond Earth, highlighting the critical need for technological advancement in computing to achieve these ambitious goals.

Further research, as suggested by the authors, could incorporate additional empirical factors such as international cooperation and funding trends to enhance the precision of the model. Such endeavors would provide a more comprehensive understanding of the dynamic interplay of factors affecting humanity's potential as a spacefaring civilization. This paper constitutes a pivotal step towards a future where humanity's survival is secured not by the confines of a single planet but by its diversification across multiple worlds.