How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate (2105.12126v1)

Abstract: To evaluate the role of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) on Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface air temperature trends it is important to have reliable estimates of both quantities. 16 different TSI estimates were compiled from the literature. 1/2 of these estimates are low variability and 1/2 are high variability. 5 largely-independent methods for estimating NH temperature trends were evaluated using: 1) only rural weather stations; 2) all available stations whether urban or rural (the standard approach); 3) only sea surface temperatures; 4) tree-ring temperature proxies; 5) glacier length temperature proxies. The standard estimates using urban as well as rural stations were anomalous as they implied a much greater warming in recent decades than the other estimates. This suggests urbanization bias might still be a problem in current global temperature datasets despite the conclusions of some earlier studies. Still, all 5 estimates confirm it is currently warmer than the late 19th century, i.e., there has been some global warming since 1850. For the 5 estimates of NH temperatures, the contribution from direct solar forcing for all 16 estimates of TSI was evaluated using simple linear least-squares fitting. The role of human activity in recent warming was then calculated by fitting the residuals to the UN IPCC's recommended anthropogenic forcings time series. For all 5 NH temperature series, different TSI estimates implied everything from recent global warming being mostly human-caused to it being mostly natural. It seems previous studies (including the most recent IPCC reports) that had prematurely concluded the former failed to adequately consider all the relevant estimates of TSI and/or to satisfactorily address the uncertainties still associated with NH temperature trend estimates. Several recommendations are provided on how future research could more satisfactorily resolve these issues.

Analyzing Solar Influence on Northern Hemisphere Temperature Trends: A Review

The paper "How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate" provides a comprehensive investigation into the degree to which solar variability, encapsulated through Total Solar Irradiance (TSI), has had a role in influencing temperature trends in the Northern Hemisphere. The authors analyze a range of methodologies for assessing historical solar activity and its potential climatic impacts, highlighting critical discussions in current climate science research.

Key Findings and Methodologies

The paper assimilates sixteen TSI reconstructions, categorized into "high" and "low" variability estimates, to understand historical solar influence on climate. These reconstructions are examined in conjunction with five different methods for estimating Northern Hemisphere temperature trends, including data from rural and urban weather stations, sea surface temperatures, tree-ring proxies, and glacier-length records. By considering this broad data spectrum, the paper challenges previous conclusions, mainly those presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, suggesting either a predominantly human-driven recent climate change or a substantial solar influence.

Analyzing Discrepancies and Debates

The researchers call attention to ongoing controversies in scientific assessments of TSI, with particular focus on the varying interpretations of satellite data and differences in proxy data utilization. For instance, the paper discusses contrasting interpretations of the ACRIM and PMOD satellite datasets with substantial implications for inferred solar variability. The paper emphasizes that the IPCC's reliance on a narrow selection of TSI estimates could inadvertently downplay potential solar contributions, thus biasing the attribution of recent climatic changes mainly toward anthropogenic factors.

Results and Implications

The analysis reveals divergent impacts of solar activity on climate models, with certain high variability TSI datasets suggesting a more pronounced solar role in the 19th and 20th centuries compared to the conclusions from low variability TSI models used in IPCC assessments. This variance suggests that solar variability could account for a considerable portion of historical temperature trends when compared with anthropogenic factors. The paper's rigorous statistical approach demarcates the proportion of temperature variations attributable to solar forcing versus human activity, further elucidating this complex interaction.

Recommendations for Future Research

The authors recommend a more inclusive assessment of available TSI datasets and acknowledgment of the inherent uncertainties in reconstructions. This broader consideration might provide a more balanced view of solar and anthropogenic factors in climate change. Additionally, they advocate for further investigation into the non-linear and possibly confounding mechanisms that might modulate solar influence on climate, such as oceanic heat retention and galactic cosmic ray interactions. These mechanisms could represent critical components of a more intricate climate system than currently modeled by linear representations in many climate studies.

Conclusion

In summary, this paper profoundly contributes to the scientific discourse by challenging existing paradigms around climate change attribution and beckoning a reevaluation of the role of solar variability. By demonstrating the potential inadequacies of selective data utilizations in previous studies, it underscores the necessity for an open scientific dialogue recognizing diverse interpretations and methodologies. Through this scholarly examination, the paper enriches our understanding of climatic systems, encouraging thorough skepticism and scrutiny of established scientific consensus in climate research.