Optimal Vaccination and Treatment Strategies in Reduction of COVID-19 Burden (2102.09802v1)

Abstract: In this study, we formulate a mathematical model incorporating age specific transmission dynamics of COVID-19 to evaluate the role of vaccination and treatment strategies in reducing the size of COVID-19 burden. Initially, we establish the positivity and boundedness of the solutions of the model and calculate the basic reproduction number. We then formulate an optimal control problem with vaccination and treatment as control variables. Optimal vaccination and treatment policies are analysed for different values of the weight constant associated with the cost of vaccination and different transmissibility levels. Findings from these suggested that the combined strategies(vaccination and treatment) worked best in minimizing the infection and disease induced mortality. In order to reduce COVID-19 infection and COVID-19 induced deaths to maximum, it was observed that optimal control strategy should be prioritized to population with age greater than 40 years. Not much difference was found between individual strategies and combined strategies in case of mild epidemic ($R_0 \in (0, 2)$). For higher values of $R_0 (R_0 \in (2, 10))$ the combined strategies was found to be best in terms of minimizing the overall infection. The infection curves varying the efficacies of the vaccines were also analysed and it was found that higher efficacy of the vaccine resulted in lesser number of infection and COVID induced death.