The climate impact of ICT: A review of estimates, trends and regulations (2102.02622v1)

Abstract: In this report, we examine the available evidence regarding ICT's current and projected climate impacts. We examine peer-reviewed studies which estimate ICT's current share of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to be 1.8-2.8% of global GHG emissions. Our findings indicate that published estimates all underestimate the carbon footprint of ICT, possibly by as much as 25%, by failing to account for all of ICT's supply chains and full lifecycle (i.e. emissions scopes 1, 2 and fully inclusive 3). Adjusting for truncation of supply chain pathways, we estimate that ICT's share of emissions could actually be as high as 2.1-3.9%. There are pronounced differences between available projections of ICT's future emissions. These projections are dependent on underlying assumptions that are sometimes, but not always, made explicit - and we explore these in the report. Whatever assumptions analysts take, they agree that ICT will not reduce its emissions without a major concerted effort involving broad political and industrial action. We provide three reasons to believe ICT emissions are going to increase barring a targeted intervention, and we note that in light of these, it seems risky to assume that ICT will, by default, assist in the attainment of climate targets. Based on our analysis, we find that not all carbon pledges in the ICT sector are ambitious enough to meet climate targets. We explore the underdevelopment of mechanisms for enforcing sector-wide compliance, and contend that without a global carbon constraint, a new regulatory framework is required to keep the ICT sector's carbon footprint in alignment with the Paris Agreement. We further contend that a global carbon constraint should be viewed as a significant opportunity for the ICT sector, as efficiencies within and enabled by ICT would be even greater enablers of productivity and utility than they are today.

Climate Impact of ICT: Examination of Carbon Footprint Estimates and Future Projections

The report "The climate impact of ICT: A review of estimates, trends, and regulations" presents a comprehensive analysis of the carbon footprint attributed to Information and Communication Technology (ICT). Authored by Freitag et al., the report synthesizes existing peer-reviewed studies and offers a critical evaluation of current and projected emissions from the ICT sector. This examination is intended to influence policy development and enhance governance structures in the ICT sector concerning climate change impacts.

Current ICT Emissions

The report addresses the current emissions from ICT, highlighting their contribution to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Current estimates range from 1.8-2.8% of global GHG emissions, aligning with European policy baselines such as “more than 2%.” Notably, the authors assert that these estimates systematically underrepresent ICT’s full carbon footprint by potentially 25% due to exclusion of comprehensive supply chain and lifecycle emissions, suggesting an adjusted range of 2.1-3.9%.

Projected ICT Emissions

Exploring future projections, the report showcases diverging perspectives. It identifies central assumptions affecting these predictions, including the continuation of energy efficiency improvements, the saturation argument about ICT device ownership, and renewable energy’s role in decarbonizing ICT. The report explains how projections are impacted by varying expectations about potential energy consumption limits, saturation points, and rebound effects.

Key Considerations

Several critical questions are put forth regarding ICT's sustained energy efficiency improvements and whether these efficiencies offset carbon footprints or not. Concerns are raised about ICT-triggered rebounds in other sectors, suggesting that benefits enabled by ICT might be insufficient to perform an absolute reduction in global emissions without targeted efforts to curb rebound effects.

Furthermore, while ICT is viewed as a tool for carbon savings across other industries, historical trends show that efficiency improvements have not led to significant reductions in overall emissions—casting doubt on sole reliance on ICT’s enabling capabilities for climate mitigation.

Implications and Future Directions

The report emphasizes the necessity for substantial political and industrial effort to drive ICT emissions reductions. Under business-as-usual scenarios, even optimistic forecasts keep emissions constant, opposing the broader need for dramatic reductions to achieve global climate targets. The need for a comprehensive regulatory framework for ICT's carbon footprint is highlighted, calling for annual reviews and inclusive analyses of supply chain emissions.

The exploration of technological innovation trends demonstrates both opportunities and risks for further carbon emissions. AI, IoT, and Blockchain are identified both as potential catalysts for efficiencies and as contributors to rising emissions due to their resource demands and proliferating adoption.

Conclusion

Conclusively, the research outlines three key reasons suggesting likely increases in ICT emissions: persistent rebound effects, exclusions in current estimates, and substantial investments in growth trends like AI, IoT, and Blockchain. While a global carbon constraint could ensure productive, efficient applications of ICT without climatic detriments, current policies must enforce stringent compliance and public sector pledges.

The combination of quantitative analysis and insight drawn from industry trends underscores the complex interplay between ICT emissions and broader environmental goals. Researchers and policy makers should prioritize setting transparent and ambitious emissions targets with stringent adherence to those goals to ensure reductions align with international climate accords.