Climate network and complexity based El Niño forecast for 2022 (2102.02192v2)

Abstract: The El Ni~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of interannual global climate variability and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Recently, we have developed two approaches for the early forecasting of El Ni~no. The climate network-based approach allows forecasting the onset of an El Ni~no event about 1 year ahead. The complexity-based approach allows additionally to forecast the magnitude of an upcoming El Ni~no event in the calendar year before. Here we communicate the forecasts of both methods for 2022.