Secondary fan, theta functions and moduli of Calabi-Yau pairs

Abstract: We conjecture that any connected component $Q$ of the moduli space of triples $(X,E=E_1+\dots+E_n,\Theta)$ where $X$ is a smooth projective variety, $E$ is a normal crossing anti-canonical divisor with a 0-stratum, every $E_i$ is smooth, and $\Theta$ is an ample divisor not containing any 0-stratum of $E$, is unirational. More precisely: note that $Q$ has a natural embedding into the Koll\'ar-Shepherd-Barron-Alexeev moduli space of stable pairs, we conjecture that the induced compactification admits a finite cover by a complete toric variety. We construct the associated complete toric fan, generalizing the Gelfand-Kapranov-Zelevinski secondary fan for reflexive polytopes. Inspired by mirror symmetry, we speculate a synthetic construction of the universal family over this toric variety, as the Proj of a sheaf of graded algebras with a canonical basis, whose structure constants are given by counts of non-archimedean analytic disks. In the Fano case and under the assumption that the mirror contains a Zariski open torus, we construct the conjectural universal family, generalizing the families of Kapranov-Sturmfels-Zelevinski and Alexeev in the toric case. In the case of del Pezzo surfaces with an anti-canonical cycle of $(-1)$-curves, we prove the full conjecture.