Effective epidemic model for COVID-19 using accumulated deaths

Abstract: The severe acute respiratory syndrome COVID-19 has been in the center of the ongoing global health crisis in 2020. The high prevalence of mild cases facilitates sub-notification outside hospital environments and the number of those who are or have been infected remains largely unknown, leading to poor estimates of the crude mortality rate of the disease. Here we use a simple model to describe the number of accumulated deaths caused by COVID-19. The close connection between the proposed model and an approximate solution of the SIR model provides a system of equations whose solutions are robust estimates of epidemiological parameters. We find that the crude mortality varies between $10^{-4}$ and $10^{-3}$ depending on the severity of the outbreak which is lower than previous estimates obtained from laboratory confirmed patients. We also estimate quantities of practical interest such as the basic reproduction number and the expected number of deaths in the asymptotic limit with and without social distancing measures and lockdowns, which allow us to measure the efficiency of these interventions.