Compartmental model with loss of immunity: analysis and parameters estimation for Covid-19 (2007.01295v3)

Abstract: The outbreak of Covid-19 led the world to an unprecedent health and economical crisis. In an attempt to responde to this emergency researchers worldwide are intensively studying the Covid-19 pandemic dynamics. In this work, a SIRSi compartmental model is proposed, which is a modification of the known classical SIR model. The proposed SIRSi model considers differences in the immunization within a population, and the possibility of unreported or asymptomatic cases. The model is adjusted to three major cities of S~ao Paulo State, in Brazil, namely, S~ao Paulo, Santos and Campinas, providing estimates on the duration and peaks of the outbreak.