COVID-19 causes record decline in global CO2 emissions (2004.13614v3)

Abstract: The considerable cessation of human activities during the COVID-19 pandemic has affected global energy use and CO2 emissions. Here we show the unprecedented decrease in global fossil CO2 emissions from January to April 2020 was of 7.8% (938 Mt CO2 with a +6.8% of 2-{\sigma} uncertainty) when compared with the period last year. In addition other emerging estimates of COVID impacts based on monthly energy supply or estimated parameters, this study contributes to another step that constructed the near-real-time daily CO2 emission inventories based on activity from power generation (for 29 countries), industry (for 73 countries), road transportation (for 406 cities), aviation and maritime transportation and commercial and residential sectors emissions (for 206 countries). The estimates distinguished the decline of CO2 due to COVID-19 from the daily, weekly and seasonal variations as well as the holiday events. The COVID-related decreases in CO2 emissions in road transportation (340.4 Mt CO2, -15.5%), power (292.5 Mt CO2, -6.4% compared to 2019), industry (136.2 Mt CO2, -4.4%), aviation (92.8 Mt CO2, -28.9%), residential (43.4 Mt CO2, -2.7%), and international shipping (35.9Mt CO2, -15%). Regionally, decreases in China were the largest and earliest (234.5 Mt CO2,-6.9%), followed by Europe (EU-27 & UK) (138.3 Mt CO2, -12.0%) and the U.S. (162.4 Mt CO2, -9.5%). The declines of CO2 are consistent with regional nitrogen oxides concentrations observed by satellites and ground-based networks, but the calculated signal of emissions decreases (about 1Gt CO2) will have little impacts (less than 0.13ppm by April 30, 2020) on the overserved global CO2 concertation. However, with observed fast CO2 recovery in China and partial re-opening globally, our findings suggest the longer-term effects on CO2 emissions are unknown and should be carefully monitored using multiple measures.

• The paper uses near-real-time data to quantify a 7.8% (938 Mt) global decline in CO2 emissions during January-April 2020.
• It dissects sector-specific impacts, revealing a 15.5% drop in road transportation and notable reductions in power (6.4%) and industry (4.4%).
• The findings underscore the transient nature of emission cuts and highlight the need for sustained policy measures to support long-term decarbonization.

Analysis of Near-real-time Decline in Global CO2 Emissions during COVID-19

The paper entitled "Near-real-time data captured record decline in global CO2 emissions due to COVID-19," presents an exhaustive assessment of CO2 emission changes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic from January to April 2020. This highly detailed investigation leverages near-real-time data to provide a comprehensive view of CO2 emission variations globally.

Key Findings

Through data integration from multiple sectors such as power generation, industry, road and aviation transport, the paper ascertains a global CO2 emissions decline of approximately 7.8% (938 Mt CO2) compared to the previous year. The paper uses region-specific and sector-specific daily CO2 inventories to dissect the contributions of different human activities to this decline.

• Road Transportation: Emissions fell by 15.5%, contributing significantly to the overall reduction.
• Power Sector: Saw a global reduction of 6.4%, with noteworthy decreases in Europe at 22.5%.
• Industrial Emissions: Declined by 4.4% globally, with China showing a decrease of 3.5%.
• Aviation and Shipping: Aviation plunged by 28.9%, while shipping emissions reduced by 15.0%.

The paper distinguishes COVID-related declines from typical seasonality by comparing 2020 data with that of 2019 and filtering through seasonal, weekly, and daily cyclical patterns.

Regional Impacts

The largest regional decreases occurred in China (-6.9%) due to early and extensive lockdowns, followed by Europe and the United States. The data implied that China's CO2 emission started recovering as early as March 2020, highlighting the pandemic's short-term nature on emission alterations.

Observational Consistency

Validation using NO2 and CO data from satellite observations and ground-based monitors indicated a consistent reduction in atmospheric pollutants, underscoring the correlation between decreased fossil fuel use due to lockdowns and reduced air pollution.

Implications and Speculations

The findings underscore the potential of such methodological approaches to monitor emissions dynamically, a crucial tool in aligning global efforts towards decarbonization. However, the paper also concludes that despite this notable short-term reduction, the impact on global atmospheric CO2 concentrations is minor, citing an estimated decrease of around 0.13 ppm.

Future Prospects

The transient nature of these reductions highlights the foundational challenge in achieving sustained decarbonization. As activity levels resume, the potential rebound effect must be keenly observed. The current scenario provides a pivotal learning opportunity, suggesting an impetus for policy mechanisms that leverage this unique moment towards reinforcing sustainable practices and investments in low-carbon technologies.

While the paper robustly maps out emission trends during an unprecedented global disruption, it also prompts a deeper inquiry into long-term policy interventions necessary to maintain and build upon temporary emission reductions observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. The systemic adoption of such methodologies may prove invaluable in ongoing and future efforts to vigilantly manage and mitigate anthropogenic climate impacts.