Detectability of kilonovae in optical surveys: $post$-$mortem$ examination of the LVC O3 run follow-up (2004.06137v3)

Abstract: The detection of the binary neutron star merger GW170817 and the associated electromagnetic (EM) counterpart, the "kilonova" (kN) AT2017gfo, opened a new era in multi-messenger astronomy. However, despite many efforts, it has been proven very difficult to find additional EM counterparts to the many LIGO/Virgo compact binary merger candidates since then. We explore the sensitivity of ongoing optical surveys searching for kNe and propose ways to optimize the choices of filters and survey depth to boost the detection efficiency for these faint and fast-evolving transients. In particular, we use kN models to explore the dependence on ejecta mass, geometry, viewing angle, wavelength coverage and source distance. Considering that the O3 LIGO/Virgo binary neutron star merger candidates were at distances about 5 times further than GW170817, we find that efficient $gri$ counterpart search would require reaching a limiting magnitude $m_{\rm lim}=$ 23 mag, given the model phase-space. We conclude that kN searches during O3 were generally too shallow to observe optical counterparts, even under optimistic assumptions, thus providing a plausible explanation for the lack of detections.