Stochastic Virtual Battery Modeling of Uncertain Electrical Loads Using Variational Autoencoder

Abstract: Effective utilization of flexible loads for grid services, while satisfying end-user preferences and constraints, requires an accurate estimation of the aggregated predictive flexibility offered by the electrical loads. Virtual battery (VB) models are often used to quantify the predictive flexibility in thermostatic loads (e.g. residential air-conditioners, electric water-heaters), which model the temporal evolution of a (virtual) energy state via a first order dynamics including self-dissipation rate, and power and energy capacities as parameters. Uncertainties and lack of information regarding end-usage and equipment models render deterministic VB models impractical. In this paper, we introduce the notion of stochastic VB models, and propose a \textit{variational autoencoder}-based deep learning algorithm to identify the probability distribution of the VB model parameters. Using available sensors and meters data, the proposed algorithm generates not only point estimates of the VB parameters, but also confidence intervals around those values. Effectiveness of the proposed frameworks is demonstrated on a collection of electric water-heater loads, whose operation is driven by uncertain water usage profiles.