A Kernel to Exploit Informative Missingness in Multivariate Time Series from EHRs

Abstract: A large fraction of the electronic health records (EHRs) consists of clinical measurements collected over time, such as lab tests and vital signs, which provide important information about a patient's health status. These sequences of clinical measurements are naturally represented as time series, characterized by multiple variables and large amounts of missing data, which complicate the analysis. In this work, we propose a novel kernel which is capable of exploiting both the information from the observed values as well the information hidden in the missing patterns in multivariate time series (MTS) originating e.g. from EHRs. The kernel, called TCK${IM}$, is designed using an ensemble learning strategy in which the base models are novel mixed mode Bayesian mixture models which can effectively exploit informative missingness without having to resort to imputation methods. Moreover, the ensemble approach ensures robustness to hyperparameters and therefore TCK${IM}$ is particularly well suited if there is a lack of labels - a known challenge in medical applications. Experiments on three real-world clinical datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed kernel.