Calculations of System Adequacy Considering Heat Transition Pathways

Abstract: The decarbonisation of heat in developed economies represents a significant challenge, with increased penetration of electrical heating technologies potentially leading to unprecedented increases in peak electricity demand. This work considers a method to evaluate the impact of rapid electrification of heat by utilising historic gas demand data. The work is intended to provide a data-driven complement to popular generative heat demand models, with a particular aim of informing regulators and actors in capacity markets as to how policy changes could impact on medium-term system adequacy metrics (up to five years ahead). Results from a GB case study show that the representation of heat demand using scaled gas demand profiles increases the rate at which 1-in-20 system peaks grow by 60\%, when compared to the use of scaled electricity demand profiles. Low end-use system efficiency, in terms of aggregate coefficient of performance and demand side response capabilities, are shown to potentially lead to a doubling of electrical demand-temperature sensitivity following five years of heat demand growth.