Understanding Electricity-Theft Behavior via Multi-Source Data (2001.07311v1)

Abstract: Electricity theft, the behavior that involves users conducting illegal operations on electrical meters to avoid individual electricity bills, is a common phenomenon in the developing countries. Considering its harmfulness to both power grids and the public, several mechanized methods have been developed to automatically recognize electricity-theft behaviors. However, these methods, which mainly assess users' electricity usage records, can be insufficient due to the diversity of theft tactics and the irregularity of user behaviors. In this paper, we propose to recognize electricity-theft behavior via multi-source data. In addition to users' electricity usage records, we analyze user behaviors by means of regional factors (non-technical loss) and climatic factors (temperature) in the corresponding transformer area. By conducting analytical experiments, we unearth several interesting patterns: for instance, electricity thieves are likely to consume much more electrical power than normal users, especially under extremely high or low temperatures. Motivated by these empirical observations, we further design a novel hierarchical framework for identifying electricity thieves. Experimental results based on a real-world dataset demonstrate that our proposed model can achieve the best performance in electricity-theft detection (e.g., at least +3.0% in terms of F0.5) compared with several baselines. Last but not least, our work has been applied by the State Grid of China and used to successfully catch electricity thieves in Hangzhou with a precision of 15% (an improvement form 0% attained by several other models the company employed) during monthly on-site investigation.