Intervention Threshold for Epidemic Control in Susceptible-Infected-Recovered Metapopulation Models (1905.03437v2)

Abstract: Metapopulation epidemic models describe epidemic dynamics in networks of spatially distant patches connected with pathways for migration of individuals. In the present study, we deal with a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) metapopulation model where the epidemic process in each patch is represented by an SIR model and the mobility of individuals is assumed to be a homogeneous diffusion. Our study focuses on two types of patches including high-risk and low-risk ones, in order to evaluate intervention strategies for epidemic control. We theoretically analyze the intervention threshold, indicating the critical fraction of low-risk patches for preventing a global epidemic outbreak. We show that targeted intervention to high-degree patches is more effective for epidemic control than random intervention. The theoretical results are validated by Monte Carlo simulation for synthetic and realistic scale-free patch networks. Our approach is useful for exploring better local interventions aimed at containment of epidemics.