Asymptotic Analysis of the Bayesian Likelihood Ratio for Testing Homogeneity in Normal Mixture Models (1812.03510v2)

Abstract: When we use the normal mixture model, the optimal number of the components describing the data should be determined. Testing homogeneity is good for this purpose; however, to construct its theory is challenging, since the test statistic does not converge to the $\chi^{2}$ distribution even asymptotically. The reason for such asymptotic behavior is that the parameter set describing the null hypothesis (N.H.) contains singularities in the space of the alternative hypothesis (A.H.). Recently, a $\it{Bayesian}$ theory for singular models was developed, and it has elucidated various problems of statistical inference. However, its application to hypothesis tests for singular models has been limited. In this paper, we introduce a scaling technique that greatly simplifies the derivation and study testing of homogeneity for the first time the basis of Bayesian theory. We derive the asymptotic distributions of the marginal likelihood ratios in three cases: (1) only the mixture ratio is a variable in the A.H. ; (2) the mixture ratio and the mean of the mixed distribution are variables; And (3) the mixture ratio, the mean, and the variance of the mixed distribution are variables.; In all cases, the results are complex, but can be described as functions of random variables obeying normal distributions. A testing scheme based on them was constructed, and their validity was confirmed through numerical experiments.