Posterior Consistency in the Binomial $(n,p)$ Model with Unknown $n$ and $p$: A Numerical Study (1809.02459v1)

Abstract: Estimating the parameters from $k$ independent Bin$(n,p)$ random variables, when both parameters $n$ and $p$ are unknown, is relevant to a variety of applications. It is particularly difficult if $n$ is large and $p$ is small. Over the past decades, several articles have proposed Bayesian approaches to estimate $n$ in this setting, but asymptotic results could only be established recently in \cite{Schneider}. There, posterior contraction for $n$ is proven in the problematic parameter regime where $n\rightarrow\infty$ and $p\rightarrow0$ at certain rates. In this article, we study numerically how far the theoretical upper bound on $n$ can be relaxed in simulations without losing posterior consistency.