Urban contact structures for epidemic simulations: Correcting biases in data-driven approaches (1804.10644v2)

Abstract: Epidemics are emergent phenomena depending on the epidemiological characteristics of pathogens and the interaction and movement of people. Public transit systems have provided much important information about the movement of people, but there are also other means of transportation (e.g., bicycle and private car), that are invisible to public transit data. This discrepancy can induce a bias in disease models that leads to mispredictions of epidemic growth (e.g., peak prevalence and time). In our study, we aim to advance and compare the epidemic spreading dynamics using public transit trips, in contrast to more accurate estimates of population movement using mobile phones traces. In our study, we simulate epidemic outbreaks in a cohort of two million mobile phone users. We use a metapopulation model incorporating susceptible-infected-recovered dynamics to analyze and compare different effective contract matrices, constructed by the public transit systems and mobile phones respectively, on the process of epidemics. We find that epidemic outbreaks using public transit trips tend to be underestimated in terms of the epidemic spreading dynamics, reaching epidemic peaks weaker and later. This is rooted in a later introduction of new infectious people into uninfected locations.