(Un)predictability of strong El Niño events

Abstract: The El Ni~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a mode of interannual variability in the coupled equatorial Pacific coupled atmosphere/ocean system. El Ni~no describes a state in which sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific increase and upwelling of colder, deep waters diminishes. El Ni~no events typically peak in boreal winter, but their strength varies irregularly on decadal time scales. There were exceptionally strong El Ni~no events in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 that affected weather on a global scale. Widely publicized forecasts in 2014 predicted that the 2015-16 event would occur a year earlier. Predicting the strength of El Ni~no is a matter of practical concern due to its effects on hydroclimate and agriculture around the world. This paper discusses the frequency and regularity of strong El Ni~no events in the context of chaotic dynamical systems. We discover a mechanism that limits their predictability in a conceptual "recharge oscillator" model of ENSO. Weak seasonal forcing or noise in this model can induce irregular switching between an oscillatory state that has strong El Ni~no events and a chaotic state that lacks strong events, In this regime, the timing of strong El Ni~no events on decadal time scales is unpredictable.