Probability Reversal and the Disjunction Effect in Reasoning Systems

Abstract: Data based judgments go into artificial intelligence applications but they undergo paradoxical reversal when seemingly unnecessary additional data is provided. Examples of this are Simpson's reversal and the disjunction effect where the beliefs about the data change once it is presented or aggregated differently. Sometimes the significance of the difference can be evaluated using statistical tests such as Pearson's chi-squared or Fisher's exact test, but this may not be helpful in threshold-based decision systems that operate with incomplete information. To mitigate risks in the use of algorithms in decision-making, we consider the question of modeling of beliefs. We argue that evidence supports that beliefs are not classical statistical variables and they should, in the general case, be considered as superposition states of disjoint or polar outcomes. We analyze the disjunction effect from the perspective of the belief as a quantum vector.