Dynamics of epidemic models with asymptomatic infection and seasonal succession (1708.03831v1)

Abstract: In this paper, we consider a compartmental SIRS epidemic model with asymptomatic infection and seasonal succession, which is a periodic discontinuous differential system. The basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$ is defined and valuated directly for this model, and the uniformly persistent of the disease and threshold dynamics are obtained. Specially, global dynamics of the model without seasonal force are studied. It is shown that the model has only a disease-free equilibrium which is globally stable if $\mathcal{R}_0\le 1$, and as $\mathcal{R}_0>1$ the disease-free equilibrium is unstable and the model has an endemic equilibrium, which is globally stable if the recovering rates of asymptomatic infective and symptomatic infective are close. These theoretical results provide an intuitive basis for understanding that the asymptomatic infective individuals and the disease seasonal transmission promote the evolution of epidemic, which allow us to predict the outcomes of control strategies during the course of the epidemic.