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Artificial Neural Networks Applied to Taxi Destination Prediction (1508.00021v2)

Published 31 Jul 2015 in cs.LG and cs.NE

Abstract: We describe our first-place solution to the ECML/PKDD discovery challenge on taxi destination prediction. The task consisted in predicting the destination of a taxi based on the beginning of its trajectory, represented as a variable-length sequence of GPS points, and diverse associated meta-information, such as the departure time, the driver id and client information. Contrary to most published competitor approaches, we used an almost fully automated approach based on neural networks and we ranked first out of 381 teams. The architectures we tried use multi-layer perceptrons, bidirectional recurrent neural networks and models inspired from recently introduced memory networks. Our approach could easily be adapted to other applications in which the goal is to predict a fixed-length output from a variable-length sequence.

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Authors (5)
  1. Alexandre de Brébisson (12 papers)
  2. Étienne Simon (4 papers)
  3. Alex Auvolat (7 papers)
  4. Pascal Vincent (78 papers)
  5. Yoshua Bengio (601 papers)
Citations (182)

Summary

  • The paper introduces a novel neural architecture that integrates metadata embeddings, ReLU activations, and softmax functions to predict taxi destinations.
  • It details a sequential pipeline starting from standardized data paths and ReLU activations through to centroid computations yielding 2D geolocation coordinates.
  • Numerical optimizations and TensorFlow training techniques ensure scalability and precision, making the framework practical for real-world taxi tracking.

Overview of the Paper on Geolocation Prediction Using TensorFlow

This paper presents a devised framework for predicting geolocation based on metadata and embeddings within a TensorFlow environment, highlighted by a flow diagram illustrated through TikZ. The methodology constructs a pipeline that leverages standardized paths, embeddings, and advanced neural network components including rectifiers and the softmax function, aimed at localizing entities in a two-dimensional space as represented by latitude and longitude coordinates.

Framework Details

The architecture initiates with a standardized path comprising sequential data transformations, transitioning into a metadata processing node. Importantly, embeddings are crafted from this metadata, forming a critical aspect of the input data processing. Subsequently, rectifiers, primarily ReLU layers, serve as the non-linear transformation elements preparing data for probability distribution via a softmax function.

After data passes through the softmax function, it converges towards centroid calculations. The centroid, derived from cluster formations, furnishes the key predictions of geolocation in terms of latitude and longitude. Each node operation is sequentially streamlined through directed pathways to ensure that data flow remains seamless across the neural network layers.

Numerical Robustness and Network Training

The robust nature of this architecture supports scalability and accuracy in predictions. Numerical evaluators within TensorFlow environments ensure precision alignment even in higher-dimensional data scenarios. Training processes integrate loss function optimization to maintain minimal variance in predicted and actual geolocation metrics, thereby enhancing the efficacy of predictions.

Implications and Future Directions

Practically, this framework proposes an accelerated and accurate geolocation methodology vital for domains reliant on location prediction and tracking, such as logistics, geospatial analysis, and asset management. Theoretically, it extends the application range of embeddings and centroid computation beyond traditional clustering tasks, underscoring the versatility of neural networking schemes equipped to synthesize both numeric and non-numeric data inputs.

Future research may focus on refining this model's scalability and integrating additional data sources like images or temporal signals to broaden prediction contexts or enhance accuracy. It also paves potential paths towards automating multi-level geolocation frameworks where real-time adaptation mechanisms could be incorporated for engaging dynamic and voluminous datasets with varying attributes.

Overall, this paper offers a structured yet flexible model for geolocation prediction, facilitating advancements in both applied methodologies and AI theoretical landscapes.

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