Effect of Coupling on the Epidemic Threshold in Interconnected Complex Networks: A Spectral Analysis (1212.4194v1)

Abstract: In epidemic modeling, the term infection strength indicates the ratio of infection rate and cure rate. If the infection strength is higher than a certain threshold -- which we define as the epidemic threshold - then the epidemic spreads through the population and persists in the long run. For a single generic graph representing the contact network of the population under consideration, the epidemic threshold turns out to be equal to the inverse of the spectral radius of the contact graph. However, in a real world scenario it is not possible to isolate a population completely: there is always some interconnection with another network, which partially overlaps with the contact network. Results for epidemic threshold in interconnected networks are limited to homogeneous mixing populations and degree distribution arguments. In this paper, we adopt a spectral approach. We show how the epidemic threshold in a given network changes as a result of being coupled with another network with fixed infection strength. In our model, the contact network and the interconnections are generic. Using bifurcation theory and algebraic graph theory, we rigorously derive the epidemic threshold in interconnected networks. These results have implications for the broad field of epidemic modeling and control. Our analytical results are supported by numerical simulations.