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Thompson Sampling: An Asymptotically Optimal Finite Time Analysis (1205.4217v2)

Published 18 May 2012 in stat.ML and cs.LG

Abstract: The question of the optimality of Thompson Sampling for solving the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem had been open since 1933. In this paper we answer it positively for the case of Bernoulli rewards by providing the first finite-time analysis that matches the asymptotic rate given in the Lai and Robbins lower bound for the cumulative regret. The proof is accompanied by a numerical comparison with other optimal policies, experiments that have been lacking in the literature until now for the Bernoulli case.

Citations (574)

Summary

  • The paper demonstrates that Thompson Sampling achieves asymptotic optimality in finite time for Bernoulli bandit problems.
  • It introduces novel techniques for bounding regret and deriving concentration inequalities specific to Bayesian randomization.
  • Experimental results confirm that Thompson Sampling consistently reduces cumulative regret compared to UCB-type strategies.

Thompson Sampling: An Asymptotically Optimal Finite-Time Analysis

Thompson Sampling, introduced in 1933, has been a prominent methodology for addressing the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem. The paper by Emilie Kaufmann, Nathaniel Korda, and Rémi Munos provides an in-depth analysis of Thompson Sampling with a specific focus on its asymptotic optimality in finite time for Bernoulli rewards. The authors present a comprehensive proof that Thompson Sampling matches the asymptotic rate given by the Lai and Robbins lower bound for cumulative regret, marking an essential milestone in validating the efficacy of the algorithm in finite settings.

Overview and Analysis

The stochastic bandit problem involves an agent making repeated choices among actions, each associated with an unknown reward distribution. The agent's primary goal is to minimize cumulative regret, measured by the disparity between achieved and optimal rewards over a period. Thompson Sampling addresses this challenge using Bayesian methods to balance exploration and exploitation. The paper specifically scrutinizes scenarios with Bernoulli-distributed rewards, building upon the groundwork laid by Lai and Robbins, who established a lower bound for the expected cumulative regret that any consistent policy must satisfy.

A cornerstone of this research is the finite-time analysis of Thompson Sampling, a significant enhancement over the existing asymptotic results. The paper posits that for Bernoulli bandit problems, Thompson Sampling achieves asymptotic optimality, aligning with other known optimal policies like KL-UCB and Bayes-UCB.

Numerical Experiments and Results

The paper's experimental results highlight Thompson Sampling's impressive performance. The algorithm's cumulative regret consistently falls below that of other well-regarded strategies like UCB, KL-UCB, and even Bayes-UCB over large horizons. The authors present numerical analyses contrasting Thompson Sampling with these policies in both low and high reward settings, reaffirming its superior efficiency and simplicity.

Key Contributions

The primary contribution of this paper lies in demonstrating Thompson Sampling's asymptotic optimality through a finite-time analysis. This breakthrough bridges the gap between theoretical potential and practical applicability, demonstrating that Thompson Sampling not only holds promise for theoretical exploration but also excels in real-world applications under bounded reward conditions.

Furthermore, the paper introduces novel techniques for bounding regret and deriving concentration inequalities tailored to the specific randomization inherent in Thompson Sampling. These methodological advancements highlight the feasibility of extending Thompson Sampling to more complex distributions beyond Bernoulli settings—offering a pathway for future research endeavors.

Implications and Future Directions

The implications of this work extend across various domains where decision-making under uncertainty is crucial, notably in automated decision systems and adaptive algorithms in AI. By proving Thompson Sampling's asymptotic optimality, this research underscores its robustness as a strategy for balancing exploration and exploitation.

Future work may focus on generalizing the algorithm to accommodate a broader range of reward distributions and applying these methodologies to intricate stochastic environments. The potential of employing MCMC techniques for posterior sampling in non-Bernoulli settings presents another promising avenue for further exploration. Additionally, this paper encourages the adaptation of Bayesian methods to handle more complex bandit problems, expanding the utility and application scope of Thompson Sampling across diverse scientific and practical fields.