Semi-supervised Learning for Photometric Supernova Classification (1103.6034v2)

Abstract: We present a semi-supervised method for photometric supernova typing. Our approach is to first use the nonlinear dimension reduction technique diffusion map to detect structure in a database of supernova light curves and subsequently employ random forest classification on a spectroscopically confirmed training set to learn a model that can predict the type of each newly observed supernova. We demonstrate that this is an effective method for supernova typing. As supernova numbers increase, our semi-supervised method efficiently utilizes this information to improve classification, a property not enjoyed by template based methods. Applied to supernova data simulated by Kessler et al. (2010b) to mimic those of the Dark Energy Survey, our methods achieve (cross-validated) 95% Type Ia purity and 87% Type Ia efficiency on the spectroscopic sample, but only 50% Type Ia purity and 50% efficiency on the photometric sample due to their spectroscopic follow-up strategy. To improve the performance on the photometric sample, we search for better spectroscopic follow-up procedures by studying the sensitivity of our machine learned supernova classification on the specific strategy used to obtain training sets. With a fixed amount of spectroscopic follow-up time, we find that deeper magnitude-limited spectroscopic surveys are better for producing training sets. For supernova Ia (II-P) typing, we obtain a 44% (1%) increase in purity to 72% (87%) and 30% (162%) increase in efficiency to 65% (84%) of the sample using a 25th (24.5th) magnitude-limited survey instead of the shallower spectroscopic sample used in the original simulations. When redshift information is available, we incorporate it into our analysis using a novel method of altering the diffusion map representation of the supernovae. Incorporating host redshifts leads to a 5% improvement in Type Ia purity and 13% improvement in Type Ia efficiency.