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The Sustainability Solution to the Fermi Paradox (0906.0568v1)

Published 2 Jun 2009 in physics.pop-ph and astro-ph.EP

Abstract: No present observations suggest a technologically advanced extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) has spread through the galaxy. However, under commonplace assumptions about galactic civilization formation and expansion, this absence of observation is highly unlikely. This improbability is the heart of the Fermi Paradox. The Fermi Paradox leads some to conclude that humans have the only advanced civilization in this galaxy, either because civilization formation is very rare or because intelligent civilizations inevitably destroy themselves. In this paper, we argue that this conclusion is premature by introducing the "Sustainability Solution" to the Fermi Paradox, which questions the Paradox's assumption of faster (e.g. exponential) civilization growth. Drawing on insights from the sustainability of human civilization on Earth, we propose that faster-growth may not be sustainable on the galactic scale. If this is the case, then there may exist ETI that have not expanded throughout the galaxy or have done so but collapsed. These possibilities have implications for both searches for ETI and for human civilization management.

Citations (47)

Summary

  • The paper proposes the "Sustainability Solution" as an alternative explanation for the Fermi Paradox, suggesting that technologically advanced extraterrestrial civilizations might not pursue unsustainable exponential growth.
  • This solution argues that sustainability constraints, similar to challenges faced by human civilization, could limit ETI expansion and prevent them from becoming easily detectable on a galactic scale.
  • The framework suggests refocusing the search for extraterrestrial intelligence on signs of slower-growth or post-collapse civilizations and offers insights for humanity's own future development toward sustainable practices.

The Sustainability Solution: A Framework for Understanding the Fermi Paradox

The paper "The Sustainability Solution to the Fermi Paradox" by Jacob D. Haqq-Misra and Seth D. Baum proposes an alternative explanation to the well-known Fermi Paradox, which questions why humanity has not observed any evidence of technologically advanced extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) despite the high probability of its existence, based on prevalent assumptions about civilization growth and expansion in the galaxy.

Overview and Key Arguments

At the core of the Fermi Paradox is the argument that, given the vast number of stars in the galaxy, some of which should support intelligent life, we would expect to observe evidence of such civilizations if they engaged in exponential expansion. However, the absence of such evidence often leads to the conclusion that either intelligent civilizations are exceedingly rare or they inevitably destroy themselves before achieving long-term expansion.

Haqq-Misra and Baum challenge this conclusion by introducing the "Sustainability Solution," which questions the assumption of exponential growth as a sustainable model for civilization expansion. They argue that, much like human society on Earth, ETI might also face sustainability constraints. The authors suggest that exponential growth may not be sustainable for galactic civilizations and that slower growth, whether intentional or due to collapse, could explain the lack of observable ETI.

Sustainability Constraints and Human Analogs

The authors draw parallels between potential ETI and human civilization, emphasizing that historical human practices of unsustainable growth often lead to collapse. They highlight examples from human history where populations expanded beyond sustainable resource use, leading to eventual decline. The possibility exists that ETI civilizations encounter similar challenges, involving resource constraints and resulting in either a transition to sustainable patterns or collapse. A shift toward sustainable growth, characterized by slower expansion, could offer an alternative resolution to the paradox where ETI does exist but is not detectably expansive on a galactic scale.

Implications for Extraterrestrial Searches

The Sustainability Solution suggests refocusing search efforts on potential ETI civilizations that may not follow an exponential growth model. Traditional SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) projects, which mainly look for electromagnetic signals from ETI, could expand to also encompass searches for spectral biosignatures on extrasolar planets indicative of life. A variety of strategies can be employed to detect signs consistent with slower-growth or post-collapse civilizations.

Additionally, investigating solar system artifacts, such as ETI probes, could yield high-value findings even if these artifacts originate from past civilizations. The suggestion to emphasize Solar System SETI offers a practical and potentially fruitful direction if ETI have transitioned from exponential growth to more sustainable patterns.

Implications for Human Civilization

The potential universal unsustainability of exponential growth extends implications to humanity's future development trajectories. If intelligent civilizations cannot sustain unchecked growth due to intrinsic ecological and resource-based constraints, human society might similarly need to transition towards more sustainable practices. While the Sustainability Solution does not definitively mandate this course, it lends credibility to existing propositions for sustainable development, given that rapid growth is more likely associated with ecological strain and potential collapse.

Conclusion

The Sustainability Solution offers an insightful addition to the discourse surrounding the Fermi Paradox. It suggests that rather than outright absence or existential failure, intelligent civilizations could exist under growth conditions that do not lend themselves readily to detection. By questioning the core assumption of exponential growth, this paper broadens the scope of inquiry and strategy in the search for ETI while providing a reflective lens through which humanity might view its own developmental future. These considerations have substantial consequences for the theoretical understanding of civilization longevity and sustainability, both terrestrially and extraterrestrially.

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